Stop Pointing Fingers at the Unvaccinated
Most of us know vaccinated and unvaccinated people who are getting mildly ill with the Omicron variant. Some of us also know both vaccinated and unvaccinated people who are in the hospital. And yet we see governments doubling down on ideas of forced vaccination and calling out the unvaccinated more and more. Why does that not fit with what people are experiencing right now? Is there science behind still seeing vaccines as the way out of this? Why all the finger pointing when things seem to be changing so fast?
It is actually getting clearer and clearer that vaccination is not nearly as relevant as it once was. I believe it was indeed keeping elderly and vulnerable people out of the ICU with the Delta variant. Both the Ontario numbers and the number of people I knew in the ICU confirmed that. I believe that in the short term, the vaccines were working. Perhaps they still are to a degree.
The current crisis however, contrary to popular and political opinions, has very little to do with vaccinations. It was claimed that the vaccine was keeping people with Omicron out of hospital and ICU. With each passing week, that narrative is proving more and more shaky. The Ontario Science table has been trying to bury the truth by playing more and more statistical games with the numbers. Their numbers and charts, if you look carefully, are massaged by various statistical methods including double-averaging, estimations, and age adjustments. They are then used to push all of the population, including the young people they adjusted out of their statistics, into vaccine conformity.
So here is a little bit of plain and simple reality to counter their narrative:
It became clear back in late December that something different was happening. Vaccinated people were starting to test positive at a significantly higher rate than unvaccinated. Yes, I understand that there are way more vaccinated people. That is why I posted the graph of rate per 100,000. Strangely, the partially vaccinated are winning, and the unvaccinated are in second place. By a statistically significant margin that should cause any serious scientist to scratch their head. Sure, age differences and unwillingness to get tested probably affects trends, but that fails to account for the partially vaccinated. It cannot explain everything in that graph.
It is interesting that the partially vaccinated are doing so well. One wonders what could be behind this, I could only guess. A comparison between positivity rates of those who got the J&J vaccine and the mRNA shots would be helpful. Hopefully honest, unbiased scientists begin researching this.
To be clear, where the graph stands on January 11 is still disproportionate. There are still too many unvaccinated people in the hospital. But the important thing is the trend, and the rates of increase. It now seems we are within a few days of vaccinated hospitalizations being proportional to percentage of population. These curves will likely start to flatten in a while, but anyone rational looking at this can see that unvaccinated people are NOT filling up our hospitals, even at this moment. Remember, there are 15 million people in Ontario. This trend is not alarming when you wrap your mind around that. Certainly, some of us will get hit hard by COVID, but that some is a tiny proportion of the total population. So far, we are still waiting for the tsunami. Maybe it will still come. Strike five for the prophets of doom and gloom?
Here is the point: hospitalizations are trending a couple weeks behind the case rates. They tell the same story, vaccines are not having the same effect that they once were. The good news, however, is that Omicron is less severe all around.
The way this pandemic seems to work is that hospitalizations trend 2-3 weeks behind the original cases, and ICU numbers few weeks behind that. It seems that children spread COVID first, then young and middle aged people, then the elderly. So every time they shut down schools, they seem to be about 6 weeks too late to have an effect. Then it takes, perhaps, another week or two for the elderly and vulnerable to get really sick in some cases and need to be in the ICU. So we are now right in the earliest stages of seeing where ICU numbers go. A trend, however, is already starting to set in. It is the rate of change that matters. The vaccinated ICU trend is getting steeper and higher.
It is speculative at this point, but it seems ICUs will increasingly fill up with vaccinated people. Whether that ever reaches proportionality is a guess at this point. I think there is still hope that the vaccine offers some protection at this level.
Here is the point: there are more vaccinated people in the ICU now than unvaccinated. Though the numbers are still disproportionate, you should stop pointing fingers at the unvaccinated. The trend does not allow for that.
One interesting point: in Ontario a month ago there were 609 empty ICU beds available, today there are still 506 empty ICU beds available. Not only that, Ontario has actually cut over 200 ICU beds compared to last spring, so there seems to be potential for well over 700 empty ICU beds as of today. Unless they literally scrapped those beds and demolished the buildings, it seems we have enough surge capacity to handle the increase that is coming. Even if we do not, the vaccination of the last holdouts is NOT going to be a main factor in the issue.
First, the real problem in my view at this point is the use of COVID tests. If we would burn (almost) every COVID test in Ontario tomorrow, and just tell people with significant symptoms to stay home, it would possibly be a January like many others. Hospital hallways would be relatively full of people with flu symptoms. Brave and hardworking nurses might push through a sniffle or headache to serve them, as they always did before. But there would at least be more nurses to share the load. If a nurse is working in a COVID ward with minor symptoms, it is irrelevant if you give COVID to COVID positive patients. If the hospitals are already full of COVID positive people, what are they trying to accomplish by keeping nurses home who have little or no symptoms? If it spreads faster than measles, what is the point? If I need to be in a hospital for COVID, I would be fine with having a COVID positive nurse or unvaccinated nurse helping me. What are they accomplishing by locking out unvaccinated nurses, who saw vaccine escape coming and made a personal health decision? What happened to that "my body, my choice" mantra that most people believed two years ago? Let the nurses work, let them make their own decisions.
Second, Ontario needs a retooling of its health care system. A two-tier system with more freedom of choice may not be politically correct these days, but it would solve a lot of problems. Mismanagement seems to be endemic. Wait times for many diagnoses have become painful. We need to give churches or charities the freedom to build and self-manage hospitals and clinics. We should make it viable for the private sector to start hospitals, clinics, or diagnostic centers, and to bill OHIP and/or charge user fees for their services. The problem is not COVID at this point, it is an over-regulated and inefficient system that is overburdened and gives few choices. Mediocre healthcare for all is not a hill worth dying on.
It is simply not true that unvaccinated people are a danger to their neighbours or a significant burden on the health system as a cohort. It is inexplicable at this point to coerce or even recommend that anyone under 30 "needs" a shot, unless perhaps there are secondary factors. I know I am not a medical professional, or an expert of any kind, but I do understand statistics. It does not take a doctor to see that vaccinations are not stopping spread, or even remotely necessary for young or healthy people. Even the Ontario Science table’s statistical methods ironically back me up by using the methods they do in order to control the narrative. Government, leave our kids alone.
Why are politicians and much of the public doubling down on vaccines even for children while this is happening right in front of our eyes? While their vaccinated friends and neighbors are going to hospital?
You might ask, why is a pastor writing about this? Because the truth is at stake. Buying in to fear, lies and division is never a good idea. Forced vaccination of school-kids, or even twenty-somethings, for a virus they almost certainly already had by this point is a terrible precedent. Closing schools is not a good idea, we need to give each parent freedom to decide for themselves. At the very least, be careful whom you believe these days, the people making policy decisions are the same people who constantly sew division.
"...the sound of a shaken leaf shall cause them to flee; they shall flee as though fleeing from a sword, and they shall fall when no one pursues." - Leviticus 26:36
It is actually getting clearer and clearer that vaccination is not nearly as relevant as it once was. I believe it was indeed keeping elderly and vulnerable people out of the ICU with the Delta variant. Both the Ontario numbers and the number of people I knew in the ICU confirmed that. I believe that in the short term, the vaccines were working. Perhaps they still are to a degree.
The current crisis however, contrary to popular and political opinions, has very little to do with vaccinations. It was claimed that the vaccine was keeping people with Omicron out of hospital and ICU. With each passing week, that narrative is proving more and more shaky. The Ontario Science table has been trying to bury the truth by playing more and more statistical games with the numbers. Their numbers and charts, if you look carefully, are massaged by various statistical methods including double-averaging, estimations, and age adjustments. They are then used to push all of the population, including the young people they adjusted out of their statistics, into vaccine conformity.
So here is a little bit of plain and simple reality to counter their narrative:
1. Fully Vaccinated People in Ontario are Actually Testing Positive at the Highest Rate
It became clear back in late December that something different was happening. Vaccinated people were starting to test positive at a significantly higher rate than unvaccinated. Yes, I understand that there are way more vaccinated people. That is why I posted the graph of rate per 100,000. Strangely, the partially vaccinated are winning, and the unvaccinated are in second place. By a statistically significant margin that should cause any serious scientist to scratch their head. Sure, age differences and unwillingness to get tested probably affects trends, but that fails to account for the partially vaccinated. It cannot explain everything in that graph.
It is interesting that the partially vaccinated are doing so well. One wonders what could be behind this, I could only guess. A comparison between positivity rates of those who got the J&J vaccine and the mRNA shots would be helpful. Hopefully honest, unbiased scientists begin researching this.
2. Hospitalizations are Now Almost Proportional
To be clear, where the graph stands on January 11 is still disproportionate. There are still too many unvaccinated people in the hospital. But the important thing is the trend, and the rates of increase. It now seems we are within a few days of vaccinated hospitalizations being proportional to percentage of population. These curves will likely start to flatten in a while, but anyone rational looking at this can see that unvaccinated people are NOT filling up our hospitals, even at this moment. Remember, there are 15 million people in Ontario. This trend is not alarming when you wrap your mind around that. Certainly, some of us will get hit hard by COVID, but that some is a tiny proportion of the total population. So far, we are still waiting for the tsunami. Maybe it will still come. Strike five for the prophets of doom and gloom?
Here is the point: hospitalizations are trending a couple weeks behind the case rates. They tell the same story, vaccines are not having the same effect that they once were. The good news, however, is that Omicron is less severe all around.
3. ICU Numbers are Following the Same Trends
The way this pandemic seems to work is that hospitalizations trend 2-3 weeks behind the original cases, and ICU numbers few weeks behind that. It seems that children spread COVID first, then young and middle aged people, then the elderly. So every time they shut down schools, they seem to be about 6 weeks too late to have an effect. Then it takes, perhaps, another week or two for the elderly and vulnerable to get really sick in some cases and need to be in the ICU. So we are now right in the earliest stages of seeing where ICU numbers go. A trend, however, is already starting to set in. It is the rate of change that matters. The vaccinated ICU trend is getting steeper and higher.
It is speculative at this point, but it seems ICUs will increasingly fill up with vaccinated people. Whether that ever reaches proportionality is a guess at this point. I think there is still hope that the vaccine offers some protection at this level.
Here is the point: there are more vaccinated people in the ICU now than unvaccinated. Though the numbers are still disproportionate, you should stop pointing fingers at the unvaccinated. The trend does not allow for that.
I also think it is important to note at this point that the numbers are actually small considering that there are 15 million people in Ontario and many of us have been infected by now. Many of us are probably in more danger of a car accident putting us in the hospital in the next month than COVID. That, however, probably still depends on age. Again, there is good news for almost everyone.
There are many unknowns in this discussion. Indeed, more people in the hospital have COVID than ever before, but some sources say only 50% of them are in hospital due to COVID. How does that translate in the ICU? How many people in the ICU are there because of a car accident or heart attack, but tested positive? Are more unvaccinated people in hospital for "just" COVID? Do unvaccinated people have more symptoms or less? Most unvaccinated people I know have been sick for maybe a day or two, or hardly at all. I do not know for sure, but the charts above still tell a story.
Are the Unvaccinated Really a Danger to Society?
There are many unknowns in this discussion. Indeed, more people in the hospital have COVID than ever before, but some sources say only 50% of them are in hospital due to COVID. How does that translate in the ICU? How many people in the ICU are there because of a car accident or heart attack, but tested positive? Are more unvaccinated people in hospital for "just" COVID? Do unvaccinated people have more symptoms or less? Most unvaccinated people I know have been sick for maybe a day or two, or hardly at all. I do not know for sure, but the charts above still tell a story.
One interesting point: in Ontario a month ago there were 609 empty ICU beds available, today there are still 506 empty ICU beds available. Not only that, Ontario has actually cut over 200 ICU beds compared to last spring, so there seems to be potential for well over 700 empty ICU beds as of today. Unless they literally scrapped those beds and demolished the buildings, it seems we have enough surge capacity to handle the increase that is coming. Even if we do not, the vaccination of the last holdouts is NOT going to be a main factor in the issue.
The question we should be asking is: is COVID even a significant danger to society at this point? It may become a serious issue for hospitals soon. Or is it mainly a danger to politicians? Or are the unvaccinated a danger to politicians?
What are the solutions?
Is suspect that the real solutions at this point have nothing to do with vaccines any more. I guess there is not much reason to listen to me, since I am not an expert of any kind, but I think there are better solutions out there than what is being done right now.
First, the real problem in my view at this point is the use of COVID tests. If we would burn (almost) every COVID test in Ontario tomorrow, and just tell people with significant symptoms to stay home, it would possibly be a January like many others. Hospital hallways would be relatively full of people with flu symptoms. Brave and hardworking nurses might push through a sniffle or headache to serve them, as they always did before. But there would at least be more nurses to share the load. If a nurse is working in a COVID ward with minor symptoms, it is irrelevant if you give COVID to COVID positive patients. If the hospitals are already full of COVID positive people, what are they trying to accomplish by keeping nurses home who have little or no symptoms? If it spreads faster than measles, what is the point? If I need to be in a hospital for COVID, I would be fine with having a COVID positive nurse or unvaccinated nurse helping me. What are they accomplishing by locking out unvaccinated nurses, who saw vaccine escape coming and made a personal health decision? What happened to that "my body, my choice" mantra that most people believed two years ago? Let the nurses work, let them make their own decisions.
Second, Ontario needs a retooling of its health care system. A two-tier system with more freedom of choice may not be politically correct these days, but it would solve a lot of problems. Mismanagement seems to be endemic. Wait times for many diagnoses have become painful. We need to give churches or charities the freedom to build and self-manage hospitals and clinics. We should make it viable for the private sector to start hospitals, clinics, or diagnostic centers, and to bill OHIP and/or charge user fees for their services. The problem is not COVID at this point, it is an over-regulated and inefficient system that is overburdened and gives few choices. Mediocre healthcare for all is not a hill worth dying on.
Concluding Thoughts
Why are politicians and much of the public doubling down on vaccines even for children while this is happening right in front of our eyes? While their vaccinated friends and neighbors are going to hospital?
I can only guess, but it seems that many people have gone all-in on the vaccines as a saviour, and cannot see beyond their bias. They are absolutely convinced their kids need the vaccine, when the reality is they do not. They are demanding it for themselves and everyone else. I also believe the politicians are afraid, and that much of their current approach is bluff and bluster. There is also a growing subset of people who now feel they were coerced or forced into a shot they did not want. Trust me, they are out there.
Politicians need an enemy to point the finger at, and the unvaccinated are a convenient scapegoat. The politicians, however, are responsible for the state of the medical system in Ontario.
You might ask, why is a pastor writing about this? Because the truth is at stake. Buying in to fear, lies and division is never a good idea. Forced vaccination of school-kids, or even twenty-somethings, for a virus they almost certainly already had by this point is a terrible precedent. Closing schools is not a good idea, we need to give each parent freedom to decide for themselves. At the very least, be careful whom you believe these days, the people making policy decisions are the same people who constantly sew division.
Finally, though it is not a cause for undue fear, it is worth noting that any of us could still get a nasty case of COVID. Even with Omicron. When hospitals are filling up, and nurses are not allowed to work for various reasons, that is even a sobering reality for someone out there. When a socialist healthcare system is showing its cracks, it is a cause for reasonable concern. Even now, I do believe that the COVID situation is to be taken with a degree of seriousness. That is not, however, mainly because of the virus itself at this point. It is not because of the unvaccinated. It is because the system is broken.